Who's betting on "Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 31?"? — Polymarket whale activity
4 whale wallets moved $73K through this market in the 30 days to 2026-07-26, across 4 trades of $10,000 or more. 100% of their buy volume went to Yes, at a volume-weighted entry of 83¢. The market last traded Yes at 88¢.
- $73K
- whale volume
- 4
- whale wallets
- 4
- fills ≥ $10K
- 64%
- top wallet share
where the whale money went
Yes
3 wallets bought at an average of 83¢
last traded 88¢ on 2026-07-27
how to read this
One wallet drives this market: 0x52f5…19da accounts for 64% of all whale buy volume ($40K). That makes this one desk's position rather than a crowd view — the concentration is the story, and it means a single actor's change of mind would move the whole picture.
Between those entries and the last print the market moved 5 cents toward the side whales bought. That is the distance between two observed prices, not a profit: we do not know which of these wallets are still holding.
biggest whale fills (4)
| date | wallet | side | outcome | size | price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-26 | 0x52f5…19da | BUY | Yes | $40K | 89¢ |
| 2026-07-26 | 0xe3cb…ac21 | BUY | Yes | $12K | 87¢ |
| 2026-07-20 | 0x7447…a16d | BUY | Yes | $11K | 60¢ |
| 2026-07-25 | 0x6d9f…9790 | SELL | Yes | $10K | 81¢ |
Each wallet links to its transaction on Polygonscan — every number on this page is checkable against the chain.
markets with similar flow
This market is one of 276 markets we track whale flow on; the week's biggest moves across all of them are on the whale index.
Whether this kind of flow actually predicts outcomes is a separate question, and we tested it on hundreds of resolved markets — read the backtest. The short version: whale flow confirms, it does not forecast.
Not financial advice · on-chain data, may be delayed · snapshot of 2026-07-27 · below our data bar, excluded from search indexing
Free tier covers the whale endpoints used on this page.