Who bet on "Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by July 31?" — Polymarket whale activity
5 whale wallets moved $147K through this market in the 30 days to 2026-07-25, across 8 trades of $10,000 or more. 100% of their buy volume went to No, at a volume-weighted entry of 98¢. The market last traded No at 99.3¢.
- $147K
- whale volume
- 5
- whale wallets
- 8
- fills ≥ $10K
- 49%
- top wallet share
where the whale money went
No
4 wallets bought at an average of 98¢
last traded 99.3¢ on 2026-07-27
how to read this
This is not a directional bet. 5 wallets put $147K into No at around 98¢ — an outcome the market already priced as all but decided. The trade on offer here is the last few cents of the dollar, not a call on the result, and reading it as smart-money conviction would be wrong.
The flow is spread across 5 wallets with the largest at 49% ($46K) — several participants independently taking the same yield, which is what an efficient market looks like rather than a signal.
The market has since converged — No last traded at 99.3¢ on 2026-07-27 — so this page is a record of how large wallets positioned while the question was still open.
biggest whale fills (8)
| date | wallet | side | outcome | size | price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-18 | 0x836f…906e | SELL | No | $27K | 96¢ |
| 2026-07-23 | 0x9351…9e4d | SELL | No | $26K | 97¢ |
| 2026-07-25 | 0x3eae…e2ed | BUY | No | $24K | 98¢ |
| 2026-07-25 | 0xd104…acef | BUY | No | $20K | 98¢ |
| 2026-07-24 | 0x5645…5d21 | BUY | No | $14K | 97¢ |
| 2026-06-29 | 0x836f…906e | BUY | No | $14K | 98¢ |
| 2026-07-18 | 0x3eae…e2ed | BUY | No | $12K | 96¢ |
| 2026-07-14 | 0x3eae…e2ed | BUY | No | $11K | 97¢ |
Each wallet links to its transaction on Polygonscan — every number on this page is checkable against the chain.
markets with similar flow
This market is one of 276 markets we track whale flow on; the week's biggest moves across all of them are on the whale index.
Whether this kind of flow actually predicts outcomes is a separate question, and we tested it on hundreds of resolved markets — read the backtest. The short version: whale flow confirms, it does not forecast.
Not financial advice · on-chain data, may be delayed · snapshot of 2026-07-27 · below our data bar, excluded from search indexing
Free tier covers the whale endpoints used on this page.