Who bet on "Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?" — Polymarket whale activity
7 whale wallets moved $407K through this market in the 30 days to 2026-07-20, across 7 trades of $10,000 or more. 100% of their buy volume went to No, at a volume-weighted entry of 99.5¢. The market last traded No at 99.9¢.
- $407K
- whale volume
- 7
- whale wallets
- 7
- fills ≥ $10K
- 86%
- top wallet share
where the whale money went
No
4 wallets bought at an average of 99.5¢
last traded 99.9¢ on 2026-07-20
how to read this
This is not a directional bet. 7 wallets put $407K into No at around 99.5¢ — an outcome the market already priced as all but decided. The trade on offer here is the last few cents of the dollar, not a call on the result, and reading it as smart-money conviction would be wrong.
It is also mostly one actor: the largest wallet is 86% of the buy flow ($273K), so this is a single desk parking money rather than a crowd doing the same trade.
The market has since converged — No last traded at 99.9¢ on 2026-07-20 — so this page is a record of how large wallets positioned while the question was still open.
biggest whale fills (7)
| date | wallet | side | outcome | size | price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-18 | 0xed10…d2e5 | BUY | No | $273K | 99.9¢ |
| 2026-07-04 | 0x182b…f3d3 | SELL | No | $60K | 95¢ |
| 2026-07-08 | 0xd5c1…5280 | BUY | No | $22K | 99.5¢ |
| 2026-07-14 | 0xc9dc…9026 | SELL | No | $20K | 99.8¢ |
| 2026-07-17 | 0xf9a2…a79a | BUY | No | $11K | 99.9¢ |
| 2026-07-20 | 0x17e3…9ba5 | SELL | No | $11K | 99.9¢ |
| 2026-06-28 | 0xe7cb…d447 | BUY | No | $10K | 88¢ |
Each wallet links to its transaction on Polygonscan — every number on this page is checkable against the chain.
markets with similar flow
This market is one of 276 markets we track whale flow on; the week's biggest moves across all of them are on the whale index.
Whether this kind of flow actually predicts outcomes is a separate question, and we tested it on hundreds of resolved markets — read the backtest. The short version: whale flow confirms, it does not forecast.
Not financial advice · on-chain data, may be delayed · snapshot of 2026-07-27 · below our data bar, excluded from search indexing
Free tier covers the whale endpoints used on this page.