Who is betting on "Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?" on Polymarket?

20 wallets traded $10,000 or more on this market between 2026-06-30 and 2026-07-19, for $985K of whale volume across 31 fills. The largest single wallet accounts for 51% of whale buy volume.

Which side are whales on for "Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?"?

78% of whale buy volume went to Yes, at a volume-weighted entry price of 40¢. This describes positioning that already happened; it is not a prediction of the outcome.

Who bet on "Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?" — Polymarket whale activity

20 whale wallets moved $985K through this market in the 30 days to 2026-07-19, across 31 trades of $10,000 or more. 78% of their buy volume went to Yes, at a volume-weighted entry of 40¢. The market last traded Yes at 0.1¢.

one-wallet conviction·2026-06-30 → 2026-07-19·whale = single fill ≥ $10,000

$985K
whale volume: 20
whale wallets: 31
fills ≥ $10K: 51%
top wallet share

where the whale money went

Yes

6 wallets bought at an average of 40¢

$338K

78% of buy flow

last traded 0.1¢ on 2026-07-20

No

3 wallets bought at an average of 62¢

$97K

22% of buy flow

last traded 99.9¢ on 2026-07-20

how to read this

One wallet drives this market: 0x18d8…7e2e accounts for 51% of all whale buy volume ($222K). That makes this one desk's position rather than a crowd view — the concentration is the story, and it means a single actor's change of mind would move the whole picture.

Between those entries and the last print the market moved 40 cents against the side whales bought. That is the distance between two observed prices, not a profit: we do not know which of these wallets are still holding.

The market has since converged — No last traded at 99.9¢ on 2026-07-20 — so this page is a record of how large wallets positioned while the question was still open.

biggest whale fills (8)

date	wallet	side	outcome	size	price
2026-07-17	0x18d8…7e2e	BUY	Yes	$122K	41¢
2026-07-17	0x18d8…7e2e	BUY	Yes	$100K	42¢
2026-07-04	0xfea3…d227	SELL	No	$74K	84¢
2026-07-17	0x2117…5c26	BUY	No	$68K	59¢
2026-07-06	0xfea3…d227	SELL	No	$50K	83¢
2026-07-19	0xf742…e039	SELL	Yes	$42K	42¢
2026-07-19	0xaa55…fae5	BUY	Yes	$41K	41¢
2026-06-30	0xe907…cff6	SELL	Yes	$40K	19¢

Each wallet links to its transaction on Polygonscan — every number on this page is checkable against the chain.

markets with similar flow

Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup?$1.01M · near-certain entry Will Demeke Mekonnen be the next Prime Minister of Ethiopia?$880K · near-certain entry Will United States win on 2026-07-06?$1.12M · one-wallet conviction

This market is one of 276 markets we track whale flow on; the week's biggest moves across all of them are on the whale index.

Whether this kind of flow actually predicts outcomes is a separate question, and we tested it on hundreds of resolved markets — read the backtest. The short version: whale flow confirms, it does not forecast.

Not financial advice · on-chain data, may be delayed · snapshot of 2026-07-27 · below our data bar, excluded from search indexing

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