Who bet on "Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?" — Polymarket whale activity
18 whale wallets moved $1.46M through this market in the 30 days to 2026-09-16, across 25 trades of $10,000 or more. 100% of their buy volume went to No, at a volume-weighted entry of 99.8¢. The market last traded No at 99.9¢.
- $1.46M
- whale volume
- 18
- whale wallets
- 25
- fills ≥ $10K
- 28%
- top wallet share
where the whale money went
No
12 wallets bought at an average of 99.8¢
last traded 99.9¢ on 2026-09-16
how to read this
This is not a directional bet. 18 wallets put $1.46M into No at around 99.8¢ — an outcome the market already priced as all but decided. The trade on offer here is the last few cents of the dollar, not a call on the result, and reading it as smart-money conviction would be wrong.
The flow is spread across 18 wallets with the largest at 28% ($234K) — several participants independently taking the same yield, which is what an efficient market looks like rather than a signal.
The market has since converged — No last traded at 99.9¢ on 2026-09-16 — so this page is a record of how large wallets positioned while the question was still open.
biggest whale fills (8)
| date | wallet | side | outcome | size | price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-14 | 0xe639…082a | SELL | No | $200K | 99.8¢ |
| 2026-09-16 | 0x521a…d12f | BUY | No | $196K | 99.9¢ |
| 2026-09-14 | 0xe639…082a | SELL | No | $130K | 99.8¢ |
| 2026-09-14 | 0x4488…e319 | BUY | No | $125K | 99.7¢ |
| 2026-09-14 | 0xad96…d498 | SELL | No | $100K | 99.8¢ |
| 2026-09-13 | 0xbacd…ab35 | BUY | No | $100K | 99.7¢ |
| 2026-09-14 | 0xd1c7…1d2b | BUY | No | $99K | 99.8¢ |
| 2026-09-14 | 0xd1c7…1d2b | BUY | No | $99K | 99.8¢ |
Each wallet links to its transaction on Polygonscan — every number on this page is checkable against the chain.
markets with similar flow
This market is one of 300 markets we track whale flow on; the week's biggest moves across all of them are on the whale index.
Whether this kind of flow actually predicts outcomes is a separate question, and we tested it on hundreds of resolved markets — read the backtest. The short version: whale flow confirms, it does not forecast.
Not financial advice · on-chain data, may be delayed · snapshot of 2026-09-28
Free tier covers the whale endpoints used on this page.