Who bet on "Will the next Claude Opus model be released by December 31, 2026?" — Polymarket whale activity
2 whale wallets moved $54K through this market in the 30 days to 2026-07-24, across 2 trades of $10,000 or more. 100% of their buy volume went to Yes, at a volume-weighted entry of 99.9¢. The market last traded Yes at 99.9¢.
- $54K
- whale volume
- 2
- whale wallets
- 2
- fills ≥ $10K
- 54%
- top wallet share
where the whale money went
Yes
2 wallets bought at an average of 99.9¢
last traded 99.9¢ on 2026-07-24
how to read this
This is not a directional bet. 2 wallets put $54K into Yes at around 99.9¢ — an outcome the market already priced as all but decided. The trade on offer here is the last few cents of the dollar, not a call on the result, and reading it as smart-money conviction would be wrong.
It is also mostly one actor: the largest wallet is 54% of the buy flow ($29K), so this is a single desk parking money rather than a crowd doing the same trade.
The market has since converged — Yes last traded at 99.9¢ on 2026-07-24 — so this page is a record of how large wallets positioned while the question was still open.
biggest whale fills (2)
| date | wallet | side | outcome | size | price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | 0x8931…a90c | BUY | Yes | $29K | 99.9¢ |
| 2026-07-24 | 0xe7bd…ebce | BUY | Yes | $25K | 99.9¢ |
Each wallet links to its transaction on Polygonscan — every number on this page is checkable against the chain.
markets with similar flow
This market is one of 276 markets we track whale flow on; the week's biggest moves across all of them are on the whale index.
Whether this kind of flow actually predicts outcomes is a separate question, and we tested it on hundreds of resolved markets — read the backtest. The short version: whale flow confirms, it does not forecast.
Not financial advice · on-chain data, may be delayed · snapshot of 2026-07-27 · below our data bar, excluded from search indexing
Free tier covers the whale endpoints used on this page.