Who's betting on "Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?"? — Polymarket whale activity
3 whale wallets moved $200K through this market in the 30 days to 2026-09-22, across 4 trades of $10,000 or more. 90% of their buy volume went to No, at a volume-weighted entry of 92¢. The market last traded No at 93¢.
- $200K
- whale volume
- 3
- whale wallets
- 4
- fills ≥ $10K
- 64%
- top wallet share
where the whale money went
No
2 wallets bought at an average of 92¢
last traded 93¢ on 2026-09-28
Yes
1 wallet bought at an average of 15¢
last traded 7¢ on 2026-09-28
how to read this
This is not a directional bet. 3 wallets put $200K into No at around 92¢ — an outcome the market already priced as all but decided. The trade on offer here is the last few cents of the dollar, not a call on the result, and reading it as smart-money conviction would be wrong.
It is also mostly one actor: the largest wallet is 64% of the buy flow ($127K), so this is a single desk parking money rather than a crowd doing the same trade.
biggest whale fills (4)
| date | wallet | side | outcome | size | price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-20 | 0x212f…7fd2 | BUY | No | $127K | 92¢ |
| 2026-09-22 | 0x88f3…e7fb | BUY | No | $52K | 92¢ |
| 2026-09-11 | 0xb1ce…ced2 | BUY | Yes | $10K | 15¢ |
| 2026-09-11 | 0xb1ce…ced2 | BUY | Yes | $10K | 15¢ |
Each wallet links to its transaction on Polygonscan — every number on this page is checkable against the chain.
markets with similar flow
This market is one of 300 markets we track whale flow on; the week's biggest moves across all of them are on the whale index.
Whether this kind of flow actually predicts outcomes is a separate question, and we tested it on hundreds of resolved markets — read the backtest. The short version: whale flow confirms, it does not forecast.
Not financial advice · on-chain data, may be delayed · snapshot of 2026-09-28
Free tier covers the whale endpoints used on this page.