Who is betting on "Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?" on Polymarket?

12 wallets traded $10,000 or more on this market between 2026-07-16 and 2026-07-26, for $323K of whale volume across 13 fills. The largest single wallet accounts for 23% of whale buy volume.

Which side are whales on for "Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?"?

64% of whale buy volume went to No, at a volume-weighted entry price of 71¢. This describes positioning that already happened; it is not a prediction of the outcome.

Who's betting on "Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?"? — Polymarket whale activity

12 whale wallets moved $323K through this market in the 30 days to 2026-07-26, across 13 trades of $10,000 or more. 64% of their buy volume went to No, at a volume-weighted entry of 71¢. The market last traded No at 80¢.

contested·2026-07-16 → 2026-07-26·whale = single fill ≥ $10,000

$323K
whale volume: 12
whale wallets: 13
fills ≥ $10K: 23%
top wallet share

where the whale money went

No

4 wallets bought at an average of 71¢

$112K

64% of buy flow

last traded 80¢ on 2026-07-27

Yes

3 wallets bought at an average of 26¢

$62K

36% of buy flow

last traded 21¢ on 2026-07-27

how to read this

Whale money is genuinely split here. No took 64% of the buy volume and Yes took 36%, so large wallets are on both sides of this question. There is no whale consensus to follow.

Between those entries and the last print the market moved 9 cents toward the side whales bought. That is the distance between two observed prices, not a profit: we do not know which of these wallets are still holding.

biggest whale fills (8)

date	wallet	side	outcome	size	price
2026-07-20	0x44c1…ebc1	SELL	No	$61K	73¢
2026-07-24	0xf559…f462	BUY	No	$40K	72¢
2026-07-20	0x3c59…1766	BUY	No	$40K	71¢
2026-07-16	0xaf28…7f92	BUY	Yes	$32K	24¢
2026-07-19	0xd104…acef	SELL	No	$22K	69¢
2026-07-26	0xc96c…6a98	SELL	Yes	$22K	22¢
2026-07-20	0xad96…d498	BUY	No	$22K	71¢
2026-07-18	0x35bb…009b	BUY	Yes	$20K	29¢

Each wallet links to its transaction on Polygonscan — every number on this page is checkable against the chain.

markets with similar flow

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This market is one of 276 markets we track whale flow on; the week's biggest moves across all of them are on the whale index.

Whether this kind of flow actually predicts outcomes is a separate question, and we tested it on hundreds of resolved markets — read the backtest. The short version: whale flow confirms, it does not forecast.

Not financial advice · on-chain data, may be delayed · snapshot of 2026-07-27

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