Who bet on "Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?" — Polymarket whale activity

53 whale wallets moved $2.38M through this market in the 30 days to 2026-09-16, across 98 trades of $10,000 or more. 50% of their buy volume went to Yes, at a volume-weighted entry of 40¢. The market last traded Yes at 14¢.

contested·2026-08-29 → 2026-09-16·whale = single fill ≥ $10,000
$2.38M
whale volume
53
whale wallets
98
fills ≥ $10K
11%
top wallet share

where the whale money went

Yes

28 wallets bought at an average of 40¢

$998K
50% of buy flow

last traded 14¢ on 2026-09-16

No

16 wallets bought at an average of 81¢

$987K
50% of buy flow

last traded 99.9¢ on 2026-09-16

how to read this

Whale money is genuinely split here. Yes took 50% of the buy volume and No took 50%, so large wallets are on both sides of this question. There is no whale consensus to follow.

Between those entries and the last print the market moved 26 cents against the side whales bought. That is the distance between two observed prices, not a profit: we do not know which of these wallets are still holding.

The market has since converged — No last traded at 99.9¢ on 2026-09-16 — so this page is a record of how large wallets positioned while the question was still open.

biggest whale fills (8)

datewalletsideoutcomesizeprice
2026-09-150x7b02…4991BUYNo$138K89¢
2026-09-160x56d0…81d6BUYNo$124K89¢
2026-09-140x9727…9157BUYNo$122K85¢
2026-09-090xbe18…3be4BUYYes$94K47¢
2026-09-130xbe18…3be4BUYYes$78K22¢
2026-09-150x58b3…653cBUYNo$62K88¢
2026-09-040x8d26…1c15BUYYes$52K59¢
2026-09-140x71ca…3501BUYNo$47K88¢

Each wallet links to its transaction on Polygonscan — every number on this page is checkable against the chain.

markets with similar flow

This market is one of 300 markets we track whale flow on; the week's biggest moves across all of them are on the whale index.

Whether this kind of flow actually predicts outcomes is a separate question, and we tested it on hundreds of resolved markets — read the backtest. The short version: whale flow confirms, it does not forecast.

Not financial advice · on-chain data, may be delayed · snapshot of 2026-09-28

Pull this data yourself

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